US Dollar Index and Spot Gold Outlook

4xgenie — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 09:51:51 +0000

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US Dollar Index and Spot Gold Outlook.

Gold Rallies As Dollar Declines.

US Dollar Index

The US Dollar Index broke through resistance at 76 before consolidating in a narrow band. Consolidation above the new support level is a continuation signal, indicating a test of 77.50, but the index is once again testing support at 76 after a false breakout. Respect of support would signal that the primary down-trend is weakening, while failure would again test support at 75. In the longer term, breakout above 77.50 would indicate that the down-trend has ended. Reversal below 75, on the other hand, would offer a target of 74.

Spot Gold

Spot gold rallied sharply on news that the Reserve Bank of India, normally an astute buyer, purchased 200 tons from the IMF (WSJ). The short-term target is $1100, but we could see further retracement to gauge support at $1000 before the long-term target of $1300 is tested.

Gold miners are lagging rather than leading spot gold as they normally do. The Market Vectors Gold Miners Index [GDX] is headed for a test of the upper trend channel at $50. The broadening wedge over the last 2 months is a bullish continuation pattern. Reversal below $41 is most unlikely, but would warn of a secondary correction. Divergences between gold miners and physical gold often forewarn of changes in the spot price.

There’s a huge bubble, because we have zero rates in the US, zero rates around the world and a huge carry trade. Everyone is borrowing at zero interest rates in dollars and getting a capital gain because the dollar is weakening, so they are borrowing at negative rates. And then they invest in risky assets: commodities, equities, credit. We’re creating a bigger bubble than before.

~ Dr. Nouriel Roubini, October 23, 2009

4xGenie Suport Team

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Post from: Forex Genie Trade Alerts

US Dollar Index and Spot Gold Outlook

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FOREX TRADE ALERT AND GOLD OUTLOOK.

4xgenie — Wed, 30 Apr 2008 05:23:53 +0000

GOLD AND EUR/USD OUTLOOK

GOLD AND EURO HAVE MOVED IN SYNK. FAILURE OF GOLD SUPPORT AT $860 WOULD

SIGNAL DOLLAR STRENGHT AGAINST THE EURO AND OTHER CURRENCIES.

SPOT GOLD PENETRATED SUPPORT AT $900 AND $860 AND IS HEDET FOR A TEST OF PRIMARY SUPPORT AT $770.

RECOVERY ABOVE THE RECENT HIGH AT $950 WOULD COMPLATE A DOUBLE BOTTOM,

REVERSAL WITH A TARGET OF $1020.

THE EURO CAUGHT MANY BULLS OFF-GUARD, WITH A SECOND FAILD BREAK ABOVE $1.59 FOLLOW BY REVERSAL

TO TEST SUPPORT AT $1.55. FAILURE OF SUPPORT WOULD SIGNAL AT TEST OF $1.50.

REVERSAL ABOVE $1.60, WHIILE OFFER A TARGET OF $1.65.

FOREX TRADE ALERT FOR EURO.

4xGenie Action: ==> Remain out of this market, for now! Today’s candlestick has broken out of the yellow shaded area of the chart and below the lower pivot band. This is very bearish! A divergence in the MACD indicator has been found.

MONTHLY PIVOT ALERT: Support level of 1.5604 was broken today. When the monthly pivot point is broken – we can look for a possible drop to the monthly S1 ( support level 1).

Next Day Trading Ranges for Tuesday Apr 29, 2008

The 20 day moving average of the daily trading range is 169 pips and the 60 day moving average of the daily trading range is 151 pips. This shows that volatility has increased in the short term. The percentage of updays when the open/low ratio is less than 25% is 89.74 percent. This means that if this par does not drop more than 42 from the opening price then there is a 89.74 percent chance that this will be an upday.

The [R3] or the most extreme high trading range is 1.5761.

The [R2] or the extreme high trading range is 1.5711.

The [R1] or the high trading range is 1.5641.

The [P] or pivot point is 1.5591.

The [S1] or the low trading range is 1.5521.

The [S2] or the extreme low trading range is 1.5471.

The [S3] or the most extreme low trading range is 1.5401.

Next Day Alternate Stops for Tuesday Apr 29, 2008

4xGenie is not currently in a trade.

Current Day Trading Session:

No signs of upward momentum at this time.

Next Day Trading Session:

If the next day’s close is above 1.5990 then that could be a sign that new upward momentum is beginning.

4XGENIE

Post from: Forex Genie Trade Alerts

FOREX TRADE ALERT AND GOLD OUTLOOK.

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Forex Genie Trade Alerts » GOLD OUTLOOK

US Dollar Index and Spot Gold Outlook