FOREX TRADE ALERT and OUTLOOK for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD

CURRENCIES CONSOLIDATE

Forex Trade Alert Signal for 08.21.2009

Euro

The euro has been edging upwards since early June, but this is more consolidation than trend, with the currency slipping below the new support level of $1.43. Recovery (above $1.43) would signal that the gradual up-trend is likely to continue, while breakout below the trend channel would warn of reversal to a primary down-trend. Penetration of support at $1.38 would confirm the down-trend and target the April low of $1.29.

British Pound

The pound is consolidating in a narrow band between $1.60 and $1.66 against the greenback. The failed breakout in early August indicates weakness and failure of support at $1.60 would confirm reversal to a primary down-trend. Continued currency debasement by the Bank of England should ensure that the pound weakens against major trading partners.

Japanese Yen

The dollar is testing support at ¥94 after retreating from the upper trend channel. Penetration of support would indicate a test of the lower channel around ¥90. Again, the trend is gradual, edging lower rather than a strong decline, possibly due to BOJ support for the dollar.

Australian Dollar

The Aussie dollar is testing the new support level at $0.82 against the greenback. Respect of support would indicate a primary advance with a target of $0.90*, while failure would test primary support around $0.7650. Recent commodity price weakness, as indicated by the decline of the CRB Commodities Index, is likely to prevent further advance of the little battler — unless we see recovery above the August peak at 269.

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